TFC mid-season report: Where do things stand with the Reds?

A 2025 MLS regular season that began with a promising road draw vs. D.C. United is starting to slip away from Toronto FC before the summer even starts.

TFC are in serious danger of seeing their playoff drought extended for another year after earning just three wins and 13 points through the first 17 matches of the 34-game campaign. Last Saturday’s 2-0 home defeat to Charlotte FC was the Reds’ third in a row and fourth in five games. Not a good way to end the month just before going on a two-week hiatus – they’re next game is away to LAFC on June 13.

“We have some work to do and we're going to do some work in this break, and I would like to think that we'll be a different group when you see us again,” coach Robin Fraser said after the Charlotte loss.

Here's where things stand with Toronto FC at the official midway point of the MLS season.

A very tough start for new TFC coach Robin Fraser 

2025 was always going to be a rebuilding season for Toronto FC, but that doesn't mean it couldn't still contend for a playoff spot, as those two things are not mutually exclusive, especially in MLS. 

Bur TFC's hopes of ending a playoff drought that dates back to 2020 when Greg Vanney was still in charge look ominous thanks a very tough first half of the campaign under new coach Robin Fraser.  

An opening day 2-2 draw vs. D.C. United at Audi Field proved to be a minor positive blip on the radar as it was followed by four consecutive losses. TFC appeared to turn the corner from late March to the third week of April courtesy of a series of impressive draws against the Vancouver Whitecaps, Inter Miami and Minnesota United (three of the best teams in MLS at the time) and a first win of the season away to Real Salt Lake. That proved to be a false dawn as the Reds went on to lose six of their next eight matches and currently toil near the very bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. 

It has to be said, the Reds have yet to be blown out and have largely been competitive in their 17 matches. But they've thrown away valuable points due to some late collapses (last week's home loss to the Philadelphia Union) and poor individual moments in matches. They have also largely played from behind or on even terms – Fraser's side have only enjoyed five leads up to this point.  

A first-round exit in the Canadian Championship to lowly CF Montreal in April further compounded the team's woes, dashing any legitimate hope it had of winning a trophy this season.  

Lack of goals the major issue for the Reds 

You don't have to look very far to figure out why TFC have struggled for results this season.    

A quick glance at the table reveals that Toronto has the third-worst attacking record in the Eastern Conference with just 18 goals in 17 games. That’s an average of 1.06 goals per game.

The Reds have been shut out on seven occasions in league play, or 41 per cent of the time. TFC ranks fourth from the bottom in the entire league in total shots (165) and is tied for sixth-worst in terms of shots on target (56), per fbref.com. 

You're not going to win many games with stats like that.  

Only two players have scored more than twice: Federico Bernardeschi (four) and Theo Corbeanu (three). Deandre Kerr (two goals) has been limited to 223 minutes due to an ankle injury suffered in April.   

Italian DPs Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne (one goal) have combined for a meagre 12 goal contributions on the season (five goals, seven assists). TAM signing Ola Brynhildsen has been limited to two goals in 12 league appearances. Captain Jonathan Osorio has two goals and an assist. Wingback Richie Laryea suffered a hamstring injury on March 1 in the second game of the season and only returned last weekend.

When your top, best-paid attacking players aren’t producing, what hope do you have of success?  

It's obvious that this team needs to find another striker who can give the attack a major boost - an experienced campaigner, either in MLS or abroad, who has a proven track record as a consistent goal scorer. Securing such a player has to be the No. 1 priority for GM Jason Hernandez during the MLS secondary transfer window, which runs from July 24 to August 21. 

A disastrous month of May for TFC  

Robin Fraser didn't mince words at the beginning of May, describing it as a make-or-break month for Toronto FC.  

"That's a lot of games, and to have that many in a row at home, it could be a start of a very good thing for us, but we have to take advantage of it," Fraser said at the start of May.  

The Reds played seven games (six at home) during the month, or roughly 21 per cent of their regular season schedule. All seven matches were against Eastern Conference rivals, with six of them against teams that were higher up the table.   

Toronto ended up earning just two wins (one at home) and taking six out of a possible 21 points during the month. Not even a historic 6-1 victory away to CF Montreal was able to lift the Reds out of the doldrums as they lost their next three matches to close out the month.  

Asked after last Saturday's defeat what the team's focus will be during its two-week break, Fraser simply said, "Concentration, determination, and willingness to suffer to win." 

The playoff picture: Not hopeless, but not very promising

Let’s not mince words or sugar coat things: Toronto FC finds itself in a major bind with half of the MLS season in the books.  

TFC (3-10-4, 13 points) sits second-last in the Eastern Conference, propped up only by CF Montreal, the second-worst team in the overall standings. Toronto occupies 14th place in the East, five spots and 12 points below New York City FC who hold down the ninth and final playoff berth in the conference. Both the New England Revolution (10th, 23 points) and Chicago Fire (11th, 22 points) have two games in hand on Toronto.  

Can the Reds make up the ground over the second half of the season? Sure. Anything is possible, especially in MLS. Teams have been known to go on very hot runs in the back half of the campaign after a stuttered start to the season.  

But the hole that Toronto has to dig itself out of is a big one. In 2024, Atlanta United had to win 10 games and earn 40 points to secure the final playoff berth in the East. In 2023, Charlotte won 10 games and collected 43 points to lock down ninth place.  

Based on an average of 41.5 points over the past two years that the ninth team in the East needed to qualify for the playoffs, TFC would have to earn at least 29 points from now until October to book a spot in the post-season.  

Twenty-nine points out of a possible 51 points during the second half of the 2025 campaign would require TFC to average 1.71 points per game the rest of the way - they're averaging 0.76 points per match so far this year.

Based on a 10-win/42 point season, Toronto would have to win at least seven of their final 17 matches while only suffering two losses. 

2nd-half schedule not working in Toronto’s favour 

Getting those 29 points won’t be easy for Toronto FC based on its schedule for the second half of the campaign. 

 Here’s how the rest of the season shakes out for TFC: 

• June 13 – LAFC (away)
• June 25 – New York Red Bulls (home) 
• June 28 – Portland Timbers (home) 
  
• July 3 – New York City (away) 
• July 12 – Atlanta United (home) 
• July 16 – San Diego Fc (away) 
• July 19 - Nashville SC (away) 
• July 26 – Charlotte FC (away) 
  
• August 9 - Philadelphia Union (away) 
• August 16 - Columbus Crew (home) 
• August 24 - Atlanta United (away) 
• August 30 – CF Montreal (home)
  
• September 13 – New England Revolution (away) 
• September 20 - Columbus Crew (away)
• September 27 - Inter Miami (home) 
  
• October 4 – Chicago Fire (away) 
• October 18 – Orlando City (home)

Of the 17 matches the Reds still have left to play, 10 are away from the confines of BMO Field. That includes a gruelling spell during the dog days of summer when they’ll play five out of six games on the road (four in a row) from July 3 to August 9.  

Toronto has a 2-3-2 road record this season, which means it’s taken just eight out of a possible 21 points from their games away from home.   

Only twice in club history has Toronto recorded six wins in a season (2016 and 2017), not including the COVID-interrupted 2020 campaign. Since 2021, TFC have won just 10 of 75 games away from home (just 47 total out of a possible 225 points on the road). 

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MVP of the 1st-half of the season 

You'd hate to think where TFC would be this season without Sean Johnson. 

The veteran goalkeeper has played every minute (1,530 minutes in all) of the campaign thus far and has routinely kept TFC in games with some timely saves and poised play between the posts while recording four clean sheets. 

Twenty-four goals against in 17 games sounds like a lot. But Johnson can't shoulder the majority of the blame as he's played behind an ever-changing back line while TFC have struggled with injuries on the defensive end. 

Only once has Johnson given up more than two goals in a game this year – a 4-2 road loss to Orlando City in the second match of the season. The American international has helped keep things close for a TFC side who suffered six one-goal losses. 

Against Charlotte last weekend, Johnson celebrated his 36th birthday by standing on his head in making seven saves as Toronto was outshot 18-7 (9-2 in shots on target). If not for his efforts, Charlotte could have easily inflicted far more damage. 

"He's been unbelievable. His shot-stopping. His ability to read plays and recognize where and when danger is coming is uncanny. And I wish we did more in front of him to reward him for some of his performances. Yeah, I think he's been tremendous. Obviously, I don't watch all of the league, but I can't think there's a goalkeeper who's made more big saves this year than him," Robin Fraser said after the game.  

Big questions facing the Reds in 2nd half of season 

Can Toronto FC survive a hectic summer schedule when it will play the majority of its games on the road and without several players who'll be away on international duty at the Concacaf Gold Cup? 

Can Jason Hernandez bring in reinforcements to strengthen TFC's roster during the MLS secondary transfer window?  

Can the Reds even hang on until the window opens on July 24 or will they be even further down the hole they've dug for themselves? Will TFC be able/try to move Lorenzo Insigne this summer? 

Can Toronto FC get and stay healthy, or will it continue to be dogged by injuries? At what point, if there even is one, does TFC consider making a coaching change and bring in a replacement for Robin Fraser? 

(Top photo by Lucas Kschischang/Toronto FC)

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